The turn of events could hardly be described as accidental. In mid-July, the scandal-plagued Progressive Conservative party of Saskatchewan and the hopelessly-divided Liberal party of Saskatchewan held preliminary discussions about a possible merger. A few days later, Reform Party of Canada leader Preston Manning signalled a major shift in RPC policy when he publicly mused that "Saskatchewan may be the best site for Reform to test the provincial waters." About a week later, eight Saskatchewan MLAs--four Tories and four Grits--called a news conference to announce the formation of the "Saskatchewan Party." No one in the RPC or the new provincial party is stating the obvious, but it is nonetheless a strong bet that the Saskatchewan Party will become the Reform Party of Saskatchewan, probably within a year.

After 10 years of resolutely resisting calls for provincial expansion, Mr. Manning and the Reform braintrust have evidently concluded that the time is ripe for diversification. "In the last few years we have just not seen the kind of concerted push for provincial expansion from our members that we are seeing now," says RPC chairman Harry Meyers. The strongest argument against it--that provincial expansion would dilute party resources and hamper growth federally--was obliterated by the results of this year's federal election. The capture of 60 seats across the West showed that Reform is more than strong enough, both organizationally and in terms of popular support, to sustain federal and provincial wings in B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The logic of a new right-wing political alternative in NDP-ruled Saskatchewan and British Columbia is irrefutable. Both governments are unabashedly pro-labour and ideologically wedded to the welfare state. Neither face a credible conservative opposition. Premier Roy Romanow's Saskatchewan regime has mounted a successful turn- around of the province's formerly dire fiscal situation, but it relied on extraordinarily high taxes to do so. Premier Glen Clark's administration in British Columbia has not only failed to address its fiscal problems, it lied outright during last year's election campaign about the true state of the province's finances. Moreover, it is pursuing a radical social policy agenda that has provoked a furious backlash among traditionalists.

The case for Reform expansion into Alberta is less obvious. Premier Ralph Klein's Tories pioneered deficit and debt reduction in Canada, slashed welfare rolls by half and undertook major structural reforms in health and education. Of late, however, it has evinced little interest in further downsizing or tax reduction and it has evoked the wrath of social conservatives by massively expanding its involvement in gambling, exhibiting a conciliatory attitude towards the radical homosexual agenda and maintaining full public funding for abortion.

In all three provinces, politically pragmatic social conservatives concede that right-wing parties focused exclusively on social issues have no hope of forming governments. At the same time, however, so-cons realize that provincial governments have primary jurisdiction over crucial policy matters like abortion, welfare, gambling, education and gay rights. While few harbour illusions that provincial Reform parties would produce an explicitly so-con agenda, they presume that the national party's commitment to direct democracy would be mimicked by provincial wings and could be used to effect major social policy changes. "Social conservatives get accused of forcing our agenda on people," observes Roy Beyers, Edmonton-based president of the Canadian Family Action Coalition. "But that's not true. Social conservative movements are in favour of more direct democracy; we just want to see government reflect people's wishes."

The major elements of direct democracy are recall, whereby constituents dissatisfied with the performance of an elected politician may petition for his ouster; initiative, which enables ordinary citizens to push for legislation via petitions; and referenda, whereby petitioners may force governments to put contentious legislation before voters for ratification. As recently as a decade ago, direct democracy was generally regarded as an obscure enthusiasm of fringe populist cranks. But it has been pushed hard by Reform and subsequently embraced, albeit reluctantly, by old-line parties responding to popular demand. One of the last acts of the corrupt Devine regime in Saskatchewan was to put a referendum question on the ballot during the 1991 election asking voters if they approved of public funding for abortion. A 63% majority voted for defunding, but the incoming Romanow government ignored the result, claiming defunding would not withstand a court challenge. In Ontario, Premier Mike Harris' Conservative government is entertaining legislation to put any future tax increases to popular vote.

But it is in B.C. where the direct-democracy movement has the most impetus. Under Mr. Clark's predecessor Mike Harcourt, the ruling New Democrats passed recall legislation setting out specific rules whereby a by-election could be forced if voter dissatisfaction is sufficiently widespread. And while the threshold was set so high--petitioners must gather the signatures of 40% of a riding's voters within 60 days--that most observers suspected the NDP commitment to populism was cosmetic, discontent over the party's fiscal and social policy record is now so intense in upcountry ridings that some government MLAs may actually be in danger.

Specifically, two New Democrats, Education Minister and Prince George North MLA Paul Ramsey and Skeena MLA Helmut Geisbrecht, have already been targeted for recall initiatives to begin in November, when the mandatory 18-month post-election moratorium ends. Should both be toppled, the NDP would lose its narrow legislative majority, thereby likely forcing a general election. Assuming the Reform Party's commitment to direct democracy was at least partially responsible for its rise from obscurity to national official opposition status in less than 10 years, it stands to reason that a provincial wing should profit from the public rumblings in support of populism. But despite the obvious potential in B.C., the RPC's first foray is occurring instead in Saskatchewan, where the federal party doubled its representation in the June national election and now holds eight of 14 federal seats.

Last week, the RPC sent out a questionnaire to its 7,765 Saskatchewan members asking if they wish to remain a federal-only party, start a new provincial subsidiary or affiliate loosely with an independent provincial party (like the fledgling Saskatchewan Party) that subscribes to Reform's principles. Most observers expect the membership to bless the idea of expansion, either through an affiliate or a subsidiary. "It is difficult to imagine how Reform members in Saskatchewan, with the confidence they have after the last election, would decide to remain federal --especially with Preston's support for expansion," says one RPC insider.

The party brass, ever-anxious to be seen as grassroots-driven, insist that no decision to provincialize will occur without formal approval at next May's annual assembly in London, Ont. RPC chairman Meyers, who is from Saskatchewan, cloaks his endorsement in the language of populism: "We're just staying the course, doing what we said we'd do--following the will of our members." But University of Calgary political scientist and ex-Reform Party policy chief Tom Flanagan believes expansion is a fait accompli. "It seems to me this is a very significant shift," he says. "This is the first time the leader has said he's willing to go along with the idea if others wanted it. In the past he has always made it clear he didn't want it."

Once the populist protocols are in place, the party must acquire the rights to the Saskatchewan Reform Party name from Yorkton lawyer Bruce Ritter. Mr. Ritter, president of Reform MP Garry Breitkreuz's Yorkton-Melville riding association, registered it in 1995 to protect it from unsavoury interlopers. By virtue of his ownership, he is also leader of the inactive party and says he might try to keep that job when the SRP holds its first leadership convention.

There is every reason to suspect that if and when the SRP is officially born, it will mount an immediate takeover of the new Saskatchewan Party. At the press conference announcing the SP's formation on August 8, the four Tory and four Liberal MLAs were joined by Mr. Breitkreuz, fellow Saskatchewan Reform MP Allan Kerpan and former MP Elwin Hermanson, a Manning confidante who lost his seat in June. All three insisted they were only there as "observers," although Mr. Hermanson is now a member of the SP's steering committee. He says the party has great potential to fill the "political vacuum in the free-enterprise community."

Mr. Kerpan won't say that the SP is a temporary phenomenon pending formal ratification of Reform expansion, but he points out that it would be unwise for Saskatchewan conservatives to launch two new parties that could split votes and re-elect the NDP. Thus he and Mr. Hermanson will urge Reformers to support the third option in the RPC's Saskatchewan survey, thus enabling Reform to affiliate with the independent SP, at least temporarily.

The Tory recruits, including former PC leader Bill Boyd, have clearly decided that they cannot continue to practice politics under a Conservative banner badly sullied by their predecessors. The fraud trials and convictions of more than a dozen former Tory MLAs, cabinet ministers and party hacks from the Devine era have been going on for about two years, with more to come. However, the Saskatchewan PCs will have a chance to vote on whether to dissolve the party altogether, and there are many Tories who will never endorse association with any entity even remotely associated with Reform.

The four Grit defectors include MLA Ken Krawetz, who was named as the SP's interim leader last week. The Liberal party is coming off a rocky year that saw mercurial former leader Linda Haverstock unceremoniously dumped and replaced after a nasty leadership battle by Jim Melenchuk. Tom Hengen, a long-time Liberal supporter and failed leadership candidate who is now the Saskatchewan Party's steering committee chairman, saw no future with the Grits. "The Liberal horse is dead and I'm not going to keep beating it," he says. "We lost face with the electorate because we broke their faith." In the recast legislature, the governing NDP now have 41 seats and the Liberals six, compared to the Saskatchewan Party's eight members.

The ungainly mix of Liberals, Tories and Reformers who form the SP's steering committee plan a founding assembly in November to finalize the party's platform. A leadership convention is scheduled for February. Their only official policy now is a commitment to direct democracy, although they have adopted certain founding principles, such as the primacy of individual rights, private-sector job creation, smaller government, improved health care, a strong social safety net and institutional reform. With the next election not expected until 1999, the SP has taken the interim step of petitioning the provincial speaker to grant the SP official opposition status, since it now has the second-highest number of MLAs. The speaker is expected rule within the month.

If Reform's goal is to gain power, not simply to enhance the party's institutional credibility and thereby improve federal prospects in central and eastern Canada, B.C. would seem a better candidate for speedy provincial expansion. Until the B.C. Social Credit party began disintegrating in 1991 under the weight of scandal, the New Democrats had managed to break the centre-right's provincial political stranglehold only once. And all three provincial NDP wins occurred when the centre-right vote fractured; last year, for example, Mr. Clark won with less than 40% of total votes and was actually outpolled overall by the centrist Liberals.

His victory was largely a consequence of the 9% of votes captured by the B.C. Reform Party, the chief vehicle for diehard so-cons unable to stomach the Liberals' left-of-centre social policy stance. Although it is unaffiliated with the national organization, and even though its founding members fought bitterly with Mr. Manning when he tried to thwart the birth of the first provincial Reform party several years ago (he was unsuccessful because B.C. Reform founder Ron Gamble had registered the Reform name in 1983, long before the federal party was organized), the federal and provincial parties remain ideological soulmates. The latter is all the more attractive for provincial expansion because it is currently leading both the NDP and the Liberals in opinion polls, even though it is leaderless and has only two MLAs.

Last year's poor showing suggests B.C. Reform could benefit from the organizational muscle of the national party, which elected 25 B.C. MPs in June. But the bad blood between the parties lingers, judging by the way B.C. Reform MLA and former leader Jack Weisgerber responds to the suggestion of a marriage. "British Columbians are sceptical of parties with federal ties," he says. "They want a party they can be sure will put the interests of British Columbians first."

Still, the poll standings demonstrate that the desire for a credible socially conservative party in B.C. is surging, fuelled partly by the NDP's fiscal profligacy and its pro-labour disposition, but also by the government's embrace of homosexual rights. In March, Mr. Ramsey endorsed an initiative by the B.C. Teachers' Federation to develop an "anti-homophobia" and "anti-heterosexism" curriculum, and this summer the NDP passed two bills sanctioning gay adoption and marriage. Highlighting the paucity of so-con representation was the fact that both bills were endorsed by the official opposition Liberals and by the two B.C. Reform MLAs.

The public outcry against these initiatives continues to mount, thanks in part to the efforts of telegenic pro-family activist Kari Simpson. A deft hand with slogans such as "the NDP forgot that schools are meant to be an extension of the family, not the state," she is attracting large crowds--far larger than the sparse turnouts drawn by the virtually anonymous candidates for the B.C. Reform leadership--in speeches around B.C. Ms. Simpson says social conservatives desperately need a provincial voice and that the Reform Party is the logical vehicle.

The B.C. Reform leadership convention on August 31 may produce a leader (candidates are Richmond chemist Adrian Wade, Cranbrook oil consultant Wilf Hanni and ex-NDPer John Motiuk of Burnaby) who is more amenable to a relationship with the RPC. If the new leader positions the party to the right socially, or at least commits to using direct democracy to decide contentious social questions, Reform may build on its leading 35% share of popular support. Moreover, should the recall campaigns against Messrs. Ramsey and Giesbrecht succeed, an election could soon ensue while Reform is riding the electoral crest that delivered the federal party most of B.C.'s 34 seats.

The least likely target for Reform provincial expansion in the West would seem to be Alberta. But so-cons are fractious there too, alienated from Tory Premier Klein because he reneged on a promise to de-fund abortion, presided over massive expansion of the gaming industry and, most recently, gave tacit approval to placing foster children with homosexual couples. The Tories also blocked a private member's bill that would have increased independent school funding, bringing it on par with Catholic and secular schools, and lightened sentences for criminals convicted of minor property offenses.

The nominally populist Klein Conservatives have shown little interest in direct democracy, with the notable exceptions of the introduction of a plebiscite requirement for any new sales tax and a promised plebiscite over any proposals related to national unity. This may be where Mr. Klein is most vulnerable. He is increasingly perceived as being soft on appeasing Quebec, which puts him at the opposite end of the spectrum from acknowledged hard-liner Preston Manning. The premier's unflinching loyalty to the federal Tories, expressed through repeated personal attacks on Mr. Manning, is another major irritant for Reformers.

Clearly, then, there is a niche in Alberta for Reform. It has a formidable political organization that took all but two federal seats in June and its natural ally, the Alberta Social Credit Party, is apparently prepared to welcome a takeover. The Socreds took 7% of votes in last spring's provincial election, twice that in 1993, and leader Randy Thorsteinson has expressed strong interest in some form of merger. Moreover, with the leaderless Liberals deeply in debt and disarray, there is little fear of splitting the right-wing vote and allowing a centrist party to triumph.

Provincial expansion, regardless where or how it occurs, is fraught with risk and opportunity. A responsible Reform provincial government in the West could boost the national party's credibility elsewhere. On the other hand, a radical or incompetent administration could hurt badly. On another level, provincial parties could serve as a training ground for future federal stars. But those stars--and their governments should they form them--could challenge the national party on policy and leadership, a challenge never before faced by Mr. Manning during his decade at the Reform helm.

But perhaps the most tantalizing possibility for federal Reformers is the prospect of three or four Reform premiers participating at constitutional bargaining sessions. If faithful to the federal party's principles, they would certainly take a harder line on Quebec than Messrs. Clark, Klein and Romanow, and they would demand that any constitutional change be submitted to the voters for ratification. And since Reform has based its constitutional position on devolution of powers to the provinces, Prof. Flanagan points out, "they would obviously prefer to decentralize that power to provincial Reform governments."

—Brian Mulawka

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