Someday, Glen Clark and his colleagues in the New Democratic Party might wish they had never won the 1996 election. Had they lost, no one would have been too upset that the party had presented a bogus budget that spring; the Asian flu that helped tip B.C. into recession would have been Gordon Campbell's problem; the fast ferries mess would have been the Liberals' to clean up; an experienced NDP opposition could have led a spirited attack against spending cuts as Mr. Campbell struggled to balance the budget. Most important, no one would have cared if a shady friend of Glen Clark's named Dimitrios Pilarinos applied for a charity casino licence.

Instead, the NDP won a narrow victory May 28, 1996, and the Clark government has lurched from crisis to crisis ever since. The revelation that the "balanced" budget was $350 million in deficit destroyed the premier's credibility. The recession probably destroyed the government's hope of getting re-elected. Now, the Great Casino Caper—the saga of how the premier's friend won approval-in-principle, even though he was associated with an alleged illegal gaming operation, the Lumbermen's Club—threatens to destroy the New Democratic Party itself. Indeed, not only is its loss in the next general election one of the surest political bets of the decade, but the party now faces the possibility of complete annihilation.

If that seems fanciful, consider that 10 years ago no one guessed that Social Credit would be erased from B.C.'s political map by the mid-1990s. Consider too that Mr. Clark is less popular than both Brian Mulroney and Bill Vander Zalm at their nadir. The latter two quit months before an election, yet it was not enough to save their parties from retribution at the ballot box. "We call these 'realigning elections,'" says John Redekop, a political science professor at Trinity Western University. "It is a great opportunity for another realignment."

Prof. Redekop says the NDP's demise is less likely than Social Credit's because there are no serious challengers for their core, working-class support. "There is a lot of opening on the left and no one to fill it," he says. But those left-leaning voters are there for the taking. They are people like Vancouver lawyer and anti-gambling activist Connie Fogal, who left the NDP after the Clark government decided to approve 10 new casinos. Ms. Fogal has no idea for whom to vote now that the NDP has put money ahead of morality. "They shouldn't have let this happen and they were wrong to abandon their principles," says Ms. Fogal. "Maybe I'll run as an independent."

Polls show NDP support at around 20%, nearly 30 points behind the Liberals and just barely ahead of the often-invisible Reform Party of B.C. At that level, the New Democrats would probably win fewer than 10 seats, says University of Victoria political scientist Norman Ruff. Most experts agree that Premier Clark must quit, and soon, if his party is to have any hope of avoiding a Socred-like defeat. Ever since BCTV opened its late-night newscast March 2 with pictures of the RCMP commercial crime squad searching the Clark home, B.C. politics has been consumed by the issue of his future. Mr. Clark admitted a week later he had thought about quitting.

He has three options now. The first can be called the Clinton strategy, in recognition of the U.S. president's stonewalling tactics in the Monica Lewinsky affair. Mr. Clark could simply tough it out, denying he had any part of the decision to give Mr. Pilarinos a casino licence. Indeed, this is what Mr. Clark has tried to do. "Seeing as I'm not under investigation, I have done nothing wrong, there are no allegations against me, then it seems to me to be extremely hard to justify why I would resign," the premier said after a five-hour caucus meeting at Vancouver's Hyatt Regency March 8. "There is business to be done: improving the economy, making sure that working people can get ahead, fixing the problems of our healthcare system, completing the Nisgaa treaty—something near and dear to my heart."

One problem with this strategy is that to create a "business as usual" atmosphere, the New Democrats will have to face the Legislature. The NDP adjourned it February 1 rather than take a daily beating from the Liberals and the press gallery over the fast-ferry fiasco. Since then, the minutes of B.C. Ferries meetings have revealed that Deputy Premier Dan Miller knew two years ago the project was over budget, and accountant Hugh Gordon found the fast cats will cost $445 million to complete—more than twice the original budget. Furthermore, the government has quietly taken over funding of the new Vancouver convention centre, costing taxpayers $300 million and breaking a promise to use private funds. As well, cabinet has authorized $170 million in extra spending to keep the government running until the end of March. All of this has occurred without debate in the Legislature.

Another problem is that many people—42%, according to a Province/McIntyre and Mustel poll—do not believe Mr. Clark's claim of innocence. While there is still no proof the premier helped his friend get the casino licence, the premier's story has started to unravel in Clintonesque fashion. The day after the police raid, Mr. Clark called Mr. Pilarinos "a neighbour" whom he saw "occasionally." A week later Mr. Clark admitted he and Mr. Pilarinos vacationed together at the premier's cottage near Penticton and together built a deck there. Mr. Pilarinos also did renovations on Mr. Clark's East Vancouver home, for which he was paid $11,000.

The second strategy involves a graceful exit for the premier. This plan, as described by anonymous NDP sources in the Province, would see Mr. Clark step down in a few weeks, once the casino furor has died down. Mr. Clark could thus salvage some dignity and avoid the appearance he had something to hide. "[An immediate resignation] would have suggested there was something seriously untoward going on," says Prof. Ruff. In the meantime the NDP caucus would try to build public sympathy for Mr. Clark's family, to make it easier for people to believe the premier is quitting because the stress has become too great for his wife and children to bear. Attacks on the media, particularly BCTV, are the key to creating that sympathy.

If this is the plan, parts of it already appear to be in play. For example, Transportation Minister Harry Lali said to reporters outside the Hyatt meeting, "I think it's a shame that in this day and age, in this province, the media can run with a story and play Peeping Tom with the private lives of individuals." Education Minister Paul Ramsey added, "Given the s---t you guys have put his family through, I wouldn't blame him for [contemplating resignation]." Similarly, Public Service Minister Moe Sihota declared, "The only thing the premier in my view should be contemplating is...suing the bejeepers out of the TV station that in my view crossed the line and invaded his privacy." (Mr. Sihota neglected to mention that, as an opposition MLA in 1990, he released tapes of private cellular telephone phone calls of Social Credit attorney general Bud Smith.)

This strategy may have a chance of success. The Province poll found 58% of respondents disapproved of BCTV's actions. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely the sympathy will last. Two days after this magazine goes to press, Auditor General George Morfitt is scheduled to release his long-awaited reported into the 1996 "fudgit budget." In addition, the technical report on whether the first fast ferry will work properly is also expected soon, probably this month. Finally, forensic accountant Ron Parks will release a draft report into allegations the NDP broke spending rules to fend off three failed recall campaigns. Each of these reports, especially Mr. Morfitt's, has the potential to wipe out any support Mr. Clark has built up.

That would leave Mr. Clark no option but to adopt a third tactic: to "take a bullet" for his party, and resign soon after the Morfitt report is made public. If the report finds the NDP deliberately inflated revenue projections to aid its re-election hopes, the fallout will be immense. It would confirm to voters that Premier Clark lied to them, and jump-start the "Total Recall" scheme, currently being organized by Kevin Falcon, to oust the government. It would also give Kelowna's David Stockell more evidence for his election-fraud case against three NDP MLAs. On March 9 B.C. Supreme Court Chief Justice Bryan Williams directed lawyers to be ready for trial no later than this fall. The NDP is still attempting to delay proceedings, however, and has asked the Supreme Court of Canada to overturn Mr. Justice Williams' decision.

If the premier takes the bullet, the NDP's new leader would probably not be tainted by the Morfitt report. Mr. Clark's departure would also puncture the Total Recall balloon; organizer Falcon says it is unlikely his group would proceed during an NDP leadership contest. "If Clark goes, he might as well take as much baggage with him as he can," says Prof. Redekop.

Would Mr. Clark's departure be enough to save the New Democrats from the fate of the Socreds? Perhaps. The NDP has a significant advantage in that big labour—one of the few parts of the NDP's left-wing coalition Mr. Clark has not alienated—is still willing to supply money and volunteers, says Patrick Smith, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University. "Anyone thinking of starting another party on the left would have to confront that reality," says Prof. Smith. The NDP also has a national following, which Social Credit lacked.

Prof. Redekop maintains, however, that if a party falls below a certain level of support, voters begin to look for an alternative. "There clearly is such a threshold, and it was encountered by Social Credit," he says. B.C. voters have a tradition of casting aside parties that have outlived their usefulness. Not since 1933 has a party that was reduced to single-digit representation in the Legislature (fewer than 10 seats) recovered to win an election, though the B.C. Liberals appear poised to accomplish this.

For the NDP, fending off electoral disaster will likely require a new leader who can make a clean break from the Clark era. The early contenders are Finance Minister Joy MacPhail, Attorney General Ujjal Dosanjh and Aboriginal Affairs Minister Gordon Wilson. Each brings a particular advantage, says Prof. Ruff. Ms. MacPhail is skilled at attacking the Liberals, and is one of the more fiscally-moderate members of cabinet. Mr. Dosanjh is considered a man of integrity, despite his support for measures to limit free speech. Mr. Wilson would be an underdog because of his shallow roots in the party, but he is the only one not sullied by the government's record.

Prof. Ruff speculates Premier Clark will be gone no later than June. Given that a party with a new leader usually gets a temporary boost in the polls, Prof. Ruff predicts the new premier would go to the polls this fall, allowing the New Democrats to salvage enough seats to rebuild. What it would not do, however, is give the NDP another chance to govern. "Clark's shadow will still be over the party," says Prof. Ruff, "the way Vander Zalm's shadow was over the Social Credit Party."

BC Report is available at your favorite newsstand,
or save up to 43% with a subscription